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Facts · Guess the stat

How well do you know opinion polls?

Guess the real numbers behind opinion polls and surveys, see how everyone else guessed, and get the source.

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By 2018, what had the typical US telephone survey response rate fallen to, down from about 9% a few years earlier?

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Man filling out ballot at polling station with a focus on civic duty and electoral participation.
Photo: Sora Shimazaki / Pexels
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  • 1 opinion poll
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Poll by the numbers

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71% (Trump was given 29%)

On the morning of the 2016 US election, FiveThirtyEight's model gave Hillary Clinton what probability of winning?

That was actually a higher chance for Trump than most other forecasters gave him, but he still won the Electoral College.

Source: Wikipedia: Nate Silver (2016) en.wikipedia.org

89%

On election morning 2020, FiveThirtyEight gave Joe Biden what probability of winning, missing only Florida, North Carolina and Maine's 2nd district?

Despite the high confidence level, the specific state-by-state calls weren't perfect.

Source: Wikipedia: Nate Silver (2020) en.wikipedia.org

United States, about $48 billion

By 2025, which single country had the largest market research industry by revenue, at about $48 billion?

The UK ($9.1 billion) and China ($2.88 billion) followed well behind.

Source: Statista, cited via industry overview (2025) en.wikipedia.org

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Questions

How does PollAdvisor.com work?

Each question asks you to guess a real number about opinion polls, surveys and how reliable they are. After you answer you see how everyone else guessed, then the real figure and where it comes from.

How is the daily round scored?

Four stats and one opinion poll. A correct guess earns 100 points plus up to 50 for speed, with a combo bonus for answers in a row. The range next to the right answer earns 40. Opinion polls earn 25 for having your say, and nailing every stat adds 150.

Where do the numbers come from?

Every stat links to its source, such as government statistics agencies, research organizations and industry groups. Figures are checked against the source before they go live.

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