Facts · Facts & sources
4 sourced facts about opinion polls, surveys and how reliable they are, each with the context behind the number. 4 more are in today's round and appear here after it closes.
AnswerObama won, 51.1% to 47.2%
Gallup's 2012 miss was one of its most notable in the modern polling era.
Source: Wikipedia: Gallup (company) (2012) en.wikipedia.org
Answerthe Electoral College winner
National polls can be accurate on the overall popular vote while still missing the state-by-state result that decides the presidency.
Source: Wikipedia: Opinion poll (2016) en.wikipedia.org
Answer71% (Trump was given 29%)
That was actually a higher chance for Trump than most other forecasters gave him, but he still won the Electoral College.
Source: Wikipedia: Nate Silver (2016) en.wikipedia.org
Answer62.1%
Even a mandatory, heavily-promoted government count struggles to get every household to respond on its own.
Source: Wikipedia: 2020 United States Census (2020) en.wikipedia.org